Health of Social Security: Who To Believe?
The Social Security Administration (SSA) is telling us that the Social Security (SS) trust fund will run out of money by the year 2033.
Do you believe them?
I just read an interesting article in CNBC.com that is informing us that our government may have been, let us say, a bit optimistic on informing us on the health of the SS trust fund.
According to the article, new studies from Harvard and Dartmouth have found that the SSA’s actuarial forecast have not been exactly realistic in reviewing the health of the trust funds.
In fact Gary King, co-author of the studies and director of Harvard's Institute for Quantitative Social Science, was quoted in the article saying, "These biases are getting bigger and they are substantial."
King also said, "[Social Security] is going to be insolvent before everyone thinks."
In reviewing all of the actuarial reports, the researchers concluded, "After 2000, forecast errors became increasingly biased, and in the same direction. Trustees Reports after 2000 all overestimated the assets in the program and overestimated solvency of the Trust Funds."
Who should we believe? The government, researchers, or common sense?
That is what it comes down to.
In 1945, there were about 42 workers paying into the SS trust fund to everyone taking out funds from the fund. In 2010 there were about 2.9 workers paying into the SS trust fund for everyone taking out.
You do the math and ask yourself the question, "Who do you believe, the government, researchers, or common sense?"
Let’s discuss this tomorrow (Monday) on my show The Live with Renk show, which airs Monday through Friday 9 a.m. to noon, to let me know your thoughts at (269) 441-9595.
Or please feel free to start a discussion and write your thoughts in the comment section.